One of the things I have noticed during the 20 years I have spent either actively investing in various strategies, or trialing them, is that the ones which make logical sense usually are the ones which work best in real life.
Lets face it, you could spend 2 life times trialing all the investment strategies people offer you. There are so many out there and I am sure most of them have some merit. What I have found though (and this in no way passes judgment on the merits of any investment strategy) is that if I really think logically about many of the investment strategies which have come my way, there are often holes in them... big ones at that too.
Strategies generally make sense. The problem I am talking about is not about making sense, it concerns completeness. When these strategies do not cover all possible scenarios, you can be left in a position where you need to make decisions that are not following the strategy. The amount of judgment you can bring to such forced decisions depends on how close this situation is to others covered by the strategy. In a worse case scenario, it could be a complete guess.
If a trading strategy leaves you guessing, when you make these guesses, you are gambling. A proper trading strategy will leave no contingency for guesswork. It will cover all scenarios taking human error out of the equation. It will be systemised and complete.
Also, the point about trialing a strategy is that you are finding out whether it will make consistent returns over the fullness of time. The point about trading a strategy is that you know it makes consistent returns over the fullness of time. If you have had a guess mid way through the strategy, you cannot be confident its the strategy or your guess which is making the money. You will need to start again.
So if you are thinking about trading a new strategy, short cut experiencing some pain and loss. Go through the logic of the strategy in a robust and thorough manner. Are there scenarios you can see, which the strategy possibly does not cover? If so, try and get answers for those scenarios. If you can't get answers for them, personally, I'd avoid the strategy. Lets face it, going to the horse races is much more fun :)
And don't forget to dummy trade before you put any money down. When you are dummy trading you will most likely find a bunch of trading scenarios you never thought about before. Make sure these are covered by the logic of the strategy too. Its much easier to sort this stuff out without money, than when you have money on the line. - 22871
Lets face it, you could spend 2 life times trialing all the investment strategies people offer you. There are so many out there and I am sure most of them have some merit. What I have found though (and this in no way passes judgment on the merits of any investment strategy) is that if I really think logically about many of the investment strategies which have come my way, there are often holes in them... big ones at that too.
Strategies generally make sense. The problem I am talking about is not about making sense, it concerns completeness. When these strategies do not cover all possible scenarios, you can be left in a position where you need to make decisions that are not following the strategy. The amount of judgment you can bring to such forced decisions depends on how close this situation is to others covered by the strategy. In a worse case scenario, it could be a complete guess.
If a trading strategy leaves you guessing, when you make these guesses, you are gambling. A proper trading strategy will leave no contingency for guesswork. It will cover all scenarios taking human error out of the equation. It will be systemised and complete.
Also, the point about trialing a strategy is that you are finding out whether it will make consistent returns over the fullness of time. The point about trading a strategy is that you know it makes consistent returns over the fullness of time. If you have had a guess mid way through the strategy, you cannot be confident its the strategy or your guess which is making the money. You will need to start again.
So if you are thinking about trading a new strategy, short cut experiencing some pain and loss. Go through the logic of the strategy in a robust and thorough manner. Are there scenarios you can see, which the strategy possibly does not cover? If so, try and get answers for those scenarios. If you can't get answers for them, personally, I'd avoid the strategy. Lets face it, going to the horse races is much more fun :)
And don't forget to dummy trade before you put any money down. When you are dummy trading you will most likely find a bunch of trading scenarios you never thought about before. Make sure these are covered by the logic of the strategy too. Its much easier to sort this stuff out without money, than when you have money on the line. - 22871
About the Author:
After many years of successful trading, Gnifrus Urquart enjoys reviewing his favorite trading strategies and offering general trading advice
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