Sunday, July 19, 2009

Trend is Your Friend

By Ahmad Hassam

It is very important to identify and understand a trend in forex because they tend to be vicious and one way. Forex trends routinely wipe out speculators like you and me who commit the trading sin of trend fading.

Forex trends start slowly and are usually the result of another action in the global capital markets. A booming stock market may lead to a massive forex trend in its wake as an example.

Likewise, a global recession may force the investors to run towards save haven currencies like dollar in their flight towards safety. Similarly fall in interest rates usually forces carry traders to become risk averse.

So you will have to keep one eye on the global macro situation developing to look in which direction smart money is going to flow. Most of the trends in forex markets are fundamentally driven by the direction of smart money flow.

The longer the trend is going to last, the longer the correction and the consolidation is going to be. In other words, fundamentally driven trends do not take U-turns all of a sudden.

But mostly when the retail investors realize that a trend has developed, it is always too late for them. Professional traders, institutional investors and hedge fund have long been in the trade and are ready to dump their positions on the retail crowd.

Dont forget the saying: a Newsweek cover is a kiss of death for a trend. Trends are important for a retail trader to understand.

Always remember, trend is your friend. Trend trading is one of the popular trading strategies used by professional traders including hedge funds.

The best strategy is to take a position in the direction of the trend. You can easily identify a trend in currency markets using multiple time frame analysis involving moving averages.

Once you have identified the trend, use Fibonacci retracement levels to enter and exit the position. Always put stop losses. If you successfully make a trade, you can make many pips in a few days. - 22871

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